Has Al-Sisi turned down Qatari gas in favour of dependency on Israel?

14 June 2014
 Ahmad Al-Laythi
Source: Middle East Monitor

"The Egyptian public can make the calculation that it's happier to have electricity 24 hours a day because they deal with Israel in getting actual gas or they would prefer to be in the dark for some hours a day as a matter of principle," with this statement Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute concluded a documentary broadcast on Al Jazeera on Monday. The film addressed the corruption that marred the gas deal between Egypt and Israel and the role of the military in overthrowing president Mohamed Morsi to protect their economic interests with Tel Aviv.

Even though Egypt halted gas exports to Israel after the January 25 revolution, Tel Aviv discovered at that time massive amounts of gas in the Mediterranean fields of Leviathan and Tamar, enough to cover domestic consumption and export the surplus to neighbouring countries, topped by Egypt whose domestic gas demands exceeded its ability to produce. Moreover, Cairo has become unable to meet its obligations towards foreign oil companies with which Egypt signed contracts to export its share of gas discoveries after the government was forced to direct all production towards the domestic market.

In addition to the huge challenges facing General al-Sisi, the energy problem remains as one of the most serious problems he has to swiftly address. Otherwise he would risk weakening his grip on power in country which ousted two presidents in three years mainly due to instability and poverty.

Israel or Qatar

The drop in domestic gas production has led to a crisis of routine power outages in the country. At the same time, the government finds itself indebted with 8 billion dollars -which is more than half the country's foreign currency reserves. Foreign companies are now prosecuting Egypt and threatening to pull out of the domestic market and to halt their entire production, which would exacerbate the problem at an unprecedented scale. So, what would Al-Sisi do to alleviate this dilemma?

Analysts suggest that he has limited options. More specifically, he only has two options: importing gas from Israel, or Qatar. According to observers, importing from Israel constitutes a direct threat to Egyptian national security, since the Egyptian "energy security" would be fully in the hands of Tel Aviv. Furthermore, this option has another drawback as it would be embarrassing for Egypt, which until two years ago was exporting gas with staggeringly low prices, in flagrant squandering of the resources of the Egyptian state.

According to a report by Forbes magazine, purchasing gas from Israel would be tantamount to "a political land mine", particularly with reports that show that Egypt lost approximately $11 billion due to low-price gas sales to Israel, in addition to another $20 billion losses in the form of debts and liabilities. Forbes quoted Sherif al-Diwany, the executive director of the Egyptian Center for Economic studies, as saying that the ongoing tension between the governments of Egypt and Israel due to those losses will increase the cost of purchasing Israeli gas at a rate much higher than expected.

"In a volatile political situation, its not wise to become dependent on Israel – Al-Sisi will not do it," al-Diwany told Forbes. Egypt relies on natural gas to generate 70 percent of its power.

Gas in exchange for Muslim Brothers?

The second option for Al-Sisi would be to import gas from Qatar, a backer of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. It is no secret that Qatar has become a foe of the new regime in Egypt after the military coup. It has been the main financial backer of Morsi and Egypt's major energy partner. Morsi has signed an agreement with Qatar to build a floating terminal designed to convert LNG to natural gas, and to provide Egypt with five free shipments to help reduce the price of gas cylinders intended for home use. However, after the overthrow of the elected president, Egypt severed its political relations with Qatar, cancelled the agreement, thus losing supply of natural gas necessary to generate electricity. It has also been deprived of the possibility of converting the import of liquefied gas to natural gas to meet its needs.

Despite the political support of Gulf countries -such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait- to Al-Sisi and offering him with free oil shipments, these countries cannot replace Qatar, one of the largest gas producers in the world.

A report by Mid-Africa Time website mentioned that Tariq al-Mullah, the chairman of the Egyptian general petroleum authority, started in April negotiations for the resumption of importing natural gas from Qatar, yet has so far failed to reach any agreement. The website quoted a source in the Qatari ministry of industry as saying that the only condition for resuming talks is "easing pressures on the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters."

British journalists David Hearst said in a recent article that Morsi was an obstacle to an attractive deal between Egypt and Israel, a deal which is about to be reached, now that Morsi has been ousted.

The Al Jazeera documentary revealed Al-Sisi's secret communications with Israel to insure his political future through importing gas from Israel to cover the deficit in Egypt. The first part of Al-Sisi's plot was implemented last January by lifting the restrictions from foreign oil and gas companies operating in Egypt so they would be capable of importing gas from any foreign supplier, for the first time in the country's history, a move which opened the door for importing gas from Israel.
The Israeli military analysis website DEBKA file said that Egypt will soon start importing 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually from the Israeli Tamar field, which renders Israel the biggest gas exporter to Egypt. Nimrod Novick, a former adviser to the Israeli prime minister, said that Egypt, which is facing a number of lawsuits because of its failure to fulfil its obligations towards foreign companies, is currently planning to use the gas deal with Israel to solve this problem first, rather than solving the power outage problem. He pointed out that the agreement may stipulate Egypt's approval to export Israeli gas to the world through the liquefaction plants built on its territory. It seems that Al-Sisi has made up his mind to surrender to Tel Aviv and reject Qatari gas, as if he were telling Egyptians: "Accept Israeli gas or drown in your sweat and live in the dark."

Translated from Arabi21, June 13, 2014

Link:  www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/africa/12114-has-al-sisi-turned-down-qatari-gas-in-favour-of-dependency-on-israel.

Have GCC countries reached reconciliation?

19 April 2014
Source: alarabiya.net

Statements released following the latest meeting between foreign ministers of the GCC countries in Riyadh said the diplomats conducted “an overall review of the procedures in place pertaining to foreign and security policies,” and that the group “agreed to adopt mechanisms to guarantee a collective framework and to ensure that policies of any of the GCC countries would not affect the interests, security and stability of the countries, nor undermine their sovereignty.”

In this regard, the diplomats have confirmed their respective countries' agreement on the ways to implement the Riyadh agreement, which is based on the principles of the GCC statute.
Of course, it is impossible that anyone can truly understand these statements without using an interpreter. Vagueness is our preferred language in the Gulf, relying on signs, and a sign is all that a free man needs to understand.

The stability of the GCC countries is a very important element, not only to its people, but to the region as a whole; a region that’s in desperate need for a safety net and stability. And if these forces, which might look weak and calm, decided to join hands and unify their policies, they could change the face of the region for the better.
Abdulrahman al-Rashed

In fact, decrypting the statement is quite a difficult task. How would someone understand the meaning of “agreeing on the importance of the strict implementation of the commitments undertaken” when the statement doesn’t define what should be implemented and what commitments were made?

Kuwaiti mediation

It goes without saying that Kuwait played a positive role to stop the defragmentation of the GCC council, the last stable entity in the region.

Prior to Kuwaiti mediation, the dispute was quickly slipping into a point of no return after three countries recalled their ambassadors from Qatar in protest and there were plans to impose sanctions, a move which would extend far beyond the previous symbolic and diplomatic measures.

The expression of “strict implementation” shows us that there are specific measures that need to be taken and that there is a team who is responsible for overseeing the implementation. Without announcing the annexes of the agreement, the door will remain open to speculate on the banned and tolerated activities.

Gulf stability

Some of the reasons behind the dispute between Qatar and its three GCC peers, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain, are known and publicly debated, and are possibly the easiest to resolve. Others, however, are less palpable and could lead to the collapse of the GCC and the Gulf front.

The disputes between GCC countries are as wide as the map of the Middle East; from Egypt to Yemen, Syria, Libya and Tunisia, but the hidden disputes can go as deep as sovereignty itself!

Whether the Riyadh agreement represents a true reconciliation between the countries or is just simply pacification, the leaders of the GCC countries have a major responsibility to admit that the value of their council is greater than their trillions’ rich investment funds, established for rainy days. In the days of calm, it’s easy to mess with relations and turn differences into greater disputes and political games, but nobody knows when the dark clouds will accumulate and a storm will hit.

The stability of the GCC countries is a very important element, not only to its people, but to the region as a whole; a region that’s in desperate need for a safety net and stability. And if these forces, which might look weak and calm, decided to join hands and unify their policies, they could change the face of the region for the better.

This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on April 19, 2014.
____________________
Abdulrahman al-Rashed is the General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column. He has also served as the editor of Asharq al-Awsat’s sister publication, al-Majalla. Throughout his career, Rashed has interviewed several world leaders, with his articles garnering worldwide recognition, and he has successfully led Al Arabiya to the highly regarded, thriving and influential position it is in today.

Last Update: Saturday, 19 April 2014

Link:  alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/04/19/Have-GCC-countries-reached-reconciliation-.html.

Kuwait to ban Muslim Brotherhood

16 March 2014
Source: Middle East Monitor

The Kuwaiti Administrative Court on Tuesday adjourned till March 25 a lawsuit that calls for banning the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated "Social Reform Association" [Al-Islah], the Al-Arab newspaper said on Wednesday.

The newspaper explained that the objective of this case is to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait, represented by the civil society organisation Al-Islah.

Al-Islah is accused of mixing charity work with politics, both on the local and international levels.
The court case reflects the escalating crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in the Gulf due to its perceived role in the so-called Arab Spring.

Saudi Arabia has recently outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, labelling it as a terrorist organisation. It imposed a strict ban on all activities supported by the group. However, the Muslim Brotherhood denied having any organization in Saudi Arabia. In a subsequent move, the three GCC countries Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Emirates recalled their Qatar ambassadors in protest of the Gulf nation's alleged support for the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam.

The recent Gulf escalation against the MB raises questions regarding the future of the group in the Gulf where it mostly engages in public charitable and social activities.

Mohamed Al-Dallal, member of the Islamic Constitutional Movement and defense lawyer in the current case against Al-Islah, said that the Saudi decision would have "repercussions on the entire region", and that the recent decision to withdraw ambassadors aimed at exercising pressures on the MB in order to limit its activities and end its influence in the region.

Link:  https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/10329-kuwait-to-ban-muslim-brotherhood.

Qatar defends foreign policy in face of Gulf anger

March 10, 2014
Source: Yahoo News

Doha (AFP) - Qatar defended its independent foreign policy Monday after Saudi Arabia and two other Gulf countries recalled their envoys from Doha accusing it of meddling in their internal affairs.

"Our policy is based on openness towards all, and we do not want to exclude anyone," Foreign Minister Khalid al-Attiya said during a visit to Paris, in remarks aired by Doha-based Al-Jazeera television.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors last week in a move widely seen as signalling their anger at Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood of deposed Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi.

Saudi Arabia and other conservative Gulf countries welcomed the military's overthrow of Morsi last July and pledged billions of dollars in aid while Qatar, which had strongly supported him, has seen its influence in Cairo evaporate.

Doha said it "regretted" the decision to recall the envoys, which it said was based on differences concerning regional issues.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies have long been hostile towards Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates across the region, fearing that its brand of grass-roots activism and political Islam could undermine their authority.

The Brotherhood is widely banned in the Gulf, and the UAE has sentenced scores of alleged members to jail, while Qatar has served as a refuge for Brotherhood sympathisers from other countries.

Attiya said Qatar "provides a forum for all those who do not belong to any bloc to come and exchange their views," but said this does not mean that Doha agrees with them.

Saudi, UAE, Bahrain recall their envoys from Qatar

22 hours ago
By AYA BATRAWY
Source: Yahoo News

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain said Wednesday they have recalled their ambassadors from Qatar in the clearest move yet underscoring their apparent displeasure over Doha's support for the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood group in Egypt and elsewhere the region.

The three Gulf Arab states made the announcement in a joint statement on state media, saying Qatar had breached a regional security deal. They said the move was made to protect their security.

Tensions between the three and Doha intensified following the ouster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Arab Spring protests in early 2011. Mubarak was long seen as a reliable Saudi ally and one whose disdain for Islamist groups was in line with the kingdom's own.

Qatar's massive financial and public support for Mubarak's successor, President Mohammed Morsi, who hails from the Brotherhood, stood at odds with UAE and Saudi policies — as did its condemnation of Morsi's ouster last July by the Egyptian military, following days of massive protests in Cairo against the Islamist president.

At home, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have cracked down on Islamist groups with links to the Brotherhood, which they see as a threat to their ruling systems. They are both staunch supporters of Egypt's new military-backed government, which subsequently launched sweeping crackdowns on Morsi and his Brotherhood supporters.

The joint Gulf statement said Qatar's ruler Emir Sheik Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani failed to uphold a security agreement that he signed in late November in Saudi Arabia. The emir of Kuwait was a witness to the meeting in Riyadh and the agreement was endorsed by other members in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council.

 

The agreement called on all GCC members not to interfere, "whether directly or indirectly" in another member nation's internal affairs. It also stipulated that GCC countries would not support organizations or individuals that threaten the security and stability of Arabian Peninsula countries "either through direct security work or by attempting to influence politics."

The language appeared to have been shorthand for support for the Brotherhood and Qatar's funding of the Doha-based pan-Arab Al-Jazeera network.

However, three months after signing the agreement, no action was taken by Qatar despite "great efforts" by the Gulf Arab nations to reach out to Doha's leadership to fulfill its side of the deal, said the Saudi-UAE-Bahrain statement.

Details of the November agreement were not made public until Wednesday.

Saudi analyst Anwar Edshki said the decision was a warning to Qatar to stop inciting violence by Islamists in Egypt.

"It is Qatar's right to support the Muslim Brotherhood, but not its right to threaten security in Egypt and incite the (people on the) street," he said.

Edshki, who chairs the Middle East Center for Strategic and Legal Studies in Saudi Arabia, said Qatar's policies have created chaos in Libya, Yemen, Syria and Egypt. However, what particularly disturbed Saudi Arabia and the UAE more recently was how Qatar allowed Islamic cleric Youssef el-Qaradawi to continue attacking the policies of these countries publicly.

The withdrawal of ambassadors from Qatar came after a meeting Tuesday in Riyadh of GCC foreign ministers that tried to "persuade" Qatar to keep up its end of the deal.

"However, all these efforts have not resulted, with great regret, in the consent of the State of Qatar to adhere to these procedures," the statement said. "So the three countries have to start taking whatever they deem appropriate to protect their security and stability by withdrawing their ambassadors from the State of Qatar, as of today."

Though Wednesday's announcement was unprecedented for the region, last month the UAE signaled it was losing patience with Qatar when it summoned Doha's ambassador to formally protest the comments of the outspoken pro-Brotherhood el-Qaradawi who criticized the Gulf country's policies toward Islamist groups on Qatari TV.

The Emirati leadership said Qatar should stop the Egyptian-born cleric from expressing comments critical of the UAE.

Even though the UAE was part of Wednesday's three-state announcement, its ambassador to Qatar has not been present in Doha for several months.

NATO, Qatar discuss collaboration

Published: Feb. 17, 2011

NATO officials agreed to enhance security consultations on all fronts with Qatar, the NATO secretary-general said.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen met with Qatari Crown Prince Tamim Bin-Hamad Bin Khalifah al-Thani and top military officials in Doha.

Rasmussen said the NATO alliance considered Qatar a potential partner in the region as Western allies address a myriad of concerns in the Middle East.

Apart of political upheavals in the Middle East, Western allies are concerned about Iran, looming violence in Iraq and the potential consequences of Hezbollah's growing political influence in Lebanon.

"We are enhancing security policy consultations on all issues that might be of interest to partners," said Rasmussen in a statement. "We are also offering greater practical cooperation by fully opening our toolbox of cooperation projects to all our partners, including the gulf states."

He added there was the "potential" to do more as energy security weighs on the minds of many allies in the region.