Thursday, May 30, 2013
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Iraq’s Protest Movement Splits Over Federalism
MUSINGS ON IRAQ: Iraq’s Protest Movement Splits Over Federalism: Since December 2012 there have been demonstrations throughout Anbar, Ninewa, Diyala, Tamim, and Salahaddin provinces over the perceived m...
What Sen. John McCain was doing in Syria
May 28, 2013
By
Source: The Week
By
Source: The Week
Sen. John McCain
(R-Ariz.) spent a few hours of
his Memorial Day in Syria U.S. Syria Turkey Syria
McCain's
visit to Syria
was kept secret until he was back in Turkey ,
at which point The Daily Beast's
Josh Rogin published an article on the covert trip. McCain's
office then confirmed it.
How under-the-radar was the excursion?
McCain's detour was coordinated by the U.S.-based Syrian
Emergency Task Force, a nonprofit group that supports the Syrian rebels. Two of
the organization's top leaders accompanied McCain, as did Gen. Salem Idris, the
leader of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Rebel
leaders from around the country gathered to meet with
McCain and Idris.
Since early
April, the U.S.
We need American help to have change on
the ground; we are now in a very critical situation.... What we want from the U.S. Lebanon Syria
The last items
on Idris' wish list seem unlikely, at least for now, but as the Syrian war starts spreading into neighboring Lebanon, giving the rebels
weapons isn't far-fetched. The European Union late Monday lifted its embargo on
arming the opposition, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted last week to
arm and provide military training to vetted anti-Assad factions.
Still,
President Obama is less than enthusiastic about entangling the U.S. Syria Damascus
The Obama
administration is right to tread carefully, says Patrick Brennan at National Review. Gen.
Idris, "a defector from Assad's army who has won fans in the West by
rejecting the most extreme and jihadist elements of the opposition," is
better than the other anti-Assad forces, notably the radical Islamists of the
Nusrah Front. But Idris, "unfortunately, appears to have very little
influence or credibility among the rebels," and it's not clear McCain's
proposed U.S.
For now, the U.S. Qatar Syria
The
"optimal geopolitical result" for the U.S. Syria U.S.
If we were to
rank the three possible outcomes of the Syrian civil war — Assad/Hezbollah
wins; the rebels win; no one wins — a victory by Assad/Hezbollah would finish
third.... Will President Obama provide any support to opposition forces? He is
said to be considering it, and continued reports of use of chemical weapons by
the regime — which crosses Obama's famous "red line" — could provide
the pretext for a shift in course.... For the U.S. Syria
Read more:http://theweek.com/article/index/244727/what-sen-john-mccain-was-doing-in-syriaDisputes over arms for Syria cloud U.S.-Russian peace drive
14 hours ago
By Alissa de Carbonnel | Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
By Alissa de Carbonnel | Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Disputes between Russia and the West over arming warring sides in Syria on Tuesday dimmed prospects for peace talks that were also clouded by disarray among President Bashar al-Assad's political foes.
As Western nations debate what action, if any, they should take on Syria, Assad's main allies - Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Shi'ite Hezbollah group - have been closing ranks behind him.
Russia, which has protected Assad diplomatically since the Syrian uprising erupted in March 2011, said it would deliver an advanced S-300 air defense system to Damascus despite U.S., French and Israeli objections, arguing that it would help deter "hotheads" intent on intervention in the conflict.
Moscow also accused the European Union of "throwing fuel on the fire" and "undermining" the chances of holding a peace conference at Geneva by letting an arms embargo on Syria expire.
France and Britain, the EU's strongest military powers and most ardent advocates of scrapping the embargo, said they had not yet decided to arm Syrian rebels, but wanted to put Assad under pressure to negotiate.
"Our focus in the coming weeks is the Geneva conference," said British Foreign Secretary William Hague. "What this is doing is sending that signal loud and clear to the regime and ... being very clear about the flexibility that we have if it refuses to negotiate."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Western powers were putting the very idea of a conference at risk while his deputy, Sergei Ryabkov, defended Moscow's missile shipment.
"We think this delivery is a stabilizing factor and that such steps in many ways restrain some hotheads," he said.
The S-300s can intercept manned aircraft and guided missiles and their delivery could improve Assad's chances of retaining power. Western nations criticize such arms deliveries in much the same terms as Moscow assails weapons supplies to rebels.
Israel's defense minister said the air defense missiles had not yet left Russia, but hinted at military action if they were delivered: "I hope they will not leave, and if, God forbid, they reach Syria, we will know what to do," Moshe Yaalon said.
Despite their differences, the United States and Russia are trying to convene an international conference next month to end a 26-month-old conflict that has killed more than 80,000 people and threatens to ignite wider Middle Eastern confrontations.
But the opposing sides remain far apart on whether Assad should play any role in any political transition - and the main Western-backed opposition has not even said if it will attend.
Diplomats in Geneva said a meeting could be held at the U.N. there on June 15-16 just before the U.S., Russian and EU leaders meet at a Group of Eight summit in Northern Ireland on June 17.
"CHASE THEM TO HELL"
Fighting in Syria has intensified on several fronts in recent weeks and is spilling dangerously into Lebanon, whose Hezbollah guerrillas now openly fight alongside Assad's forces.
In a weekend speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah promised victory for his Iranian-backed group, saying the battle in Syria was vital for its primary struggle against Israel.
On the ever more volatile Lebanese-Syrian border, gunmen killed three Lebanese soldiers at a checkpoint in the Bekaa Valley before fleeing toward Syria, Lebanese officials said.
Hours earlier a rocket fired into the mainly Shi'ite town of Hermel in the Bekaa killed a woman and wounded two people.
A Syrian rebel leader threatened reprisals against Hezbollah unless the Arab League and the United Nations acted within 24 hours to halt the militant group's intervention in Syria.
"We will chase them all the way to hell if a decision is not taken to stop Hezbollah's attack on Syrian land," Brigadier-General Salem Idris told Al-Arabiya television channel.
Idris, a defector from Assad's military, is a favored channel for Western aid to rebels, although his control over diverse armed factions is thought to be limited.
Violence in Syria is gradually spreading to Lebanon, raising fears for the fate of a small nation that lost anywhere between 100,000 and 150,000 dead in its own 1975-90 civil war.
Syria's civil war has divided Lebanon, with most Lebanese Shi'ites supporting Assad, whose minority Alawite sect is rooted in Shi'ite Islam. Many Lebanese Sunnis back the mostly Sunni Syrian rebels, putting the Lebanese army under extra pressure to keep a lid on sectarian tensions.
Assad's government, whose forces have been staging fierce offensives on rebel strongholds around Damascus and the border town of Qusair, has named representatives for the peace talks Washington and Moscow hope to convene in Geneva in June.
But opposition political factions, not to mention the rebel combatants over whom they wield scant control, remain riven by internal divisions even after six days of talks in Istanbul.
The 60-member Syrian National Coalition has failed to agree to include more liberals in its ranks to the dismay of Western and some Arab backers keen to reduce the influence of Islamists.
The disarray raises questions about the opposition's ability to agree any sort of inclusive transitional government and could strengthen Assad's hand before any peace talks.
Western and Arab envoys sought to break the opposition deadlock which could even scupper the U.S.-Russian initiative.
"Effectively, without an opposition overhaul there will not be a Geneva," a frustrated regional official in Istanbul said.
Monday, May 27, 2013
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Friday, May 24, 2013
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
New Evidence of Iran Support to Assad, While Congress Moves to Arm Rebels
New Evidence of Iran Support to Assad, While Congress Moves to Arm Rebels: The United States has new evidence that Iran and Hezbollah have direct involvement with the Syrian regime, a senior State Department official told reporters traveling with Secretary of State John Kerry in Oman. The official said that, according to the Free Syrian Army, Hezbollah and...
New Evidence of Iran Support to Assad, While Congress Moves to Arm Rebels
New Evidence of Iran Support to Assad, While Congress Moves to Arm Rebels: The United States has new evidence that Iran and Hezbollah have direct involvement with the Syrian regime, a senior State Department official told reporters traveling with Secretary of State John Kerry in Oman. The official said that, according to the Free Syrian Army, Hezbollah and...
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
This Gun Maker Should Send President Obama a Thank You Note
May 20, 2013
By Eric McWhinnie
Source:Wall St.Cheat Sheet
The nation’s second largest publicly-traded gun manufacturer may need to send a thank you note to President Obama.
For the 25th consecutive year, The Boston Globe unveiled its Globe 100 list on Sunday, ranking the best-performing public companies in Massachusetts. The Springfield-based Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) topped the list for the first time in history.
In a press release, the Boston Globe explains, “Smith & Wesson secured the number one spot by achieving revenue growth of more than 40 percent in 2012, significantly improving profit margins, and delivering an average return on equity of more than 55 percent. Company sales continued to surge after intense public debate on gun ownership, and White House efforts to introduce new gun control legislation. In March the company said that, despite increasing production, it was unable to meet market demand for its firearm products.”
By Eric McWhinnie
Source:Wall St.Cheat Sheet
The nation’s second largest publicly-traded gun manufacturer may need to send a thank you note to President Obama.
For the 25th consecutive year, The Boston Globe unveiled its Globe 100 list on Sunday, ranking the best-performing public companies in Massachusetts. The Springfield-based Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) topped the list for the first time in history.
In a press release, the Boston Globe explains, “Smith & Wesson secured the number one spot by achieving revenue growth of more than 40 percent in 2012, significantly improving profit margins, and delivering an average return on equity of more than 55 percent. Company sales continued to surge after intense public debate on gun ownership, and White House efforts to introduce new gun control legislation. In March the company said that, despite increasing production, it was unable to meet market demand for its firearm products.”
Smith & Wesson’s accomplishment is even more impressive, considering the list is dominated by sectors such as technology, biotechnology, and telecommunications. To be considered for the rankings, a company must have corporate headquarters in Massachusetts, trade on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq, or the American Stock Exchange, have been a public company for all of 2012, and report revenue and profit for both 2011 and 2012.
The gun industry typically receives a boost when a Democrat holds the White House, but gun and ammo sales have surged to record highs as the tragedy in Newtown sparks more debate about gun control.
In January, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden rolled out a wide-ranging list of executive actions regarding gun control. Furthermore, Obama called on Congress to: ban military-style assault weapons, ban capacities of more than 10 rounds, require background checks on all gun sales, and create tougher penalties for those selling guns to people who are not legally allowed to have them.
After months of discussions and finger pointing, Congress did not answer Obama’s call. A bill aimed at expanding the system of background checks failed in the Senate. It received only 54 votes, six votes short of the 60 needed to advance. Although the bill had co-sponsorship from both political parties, five Democrats broke from party lines, and only four GOP senators voted in favor of the bill. The Senate also blocked a proposal to ban semi-automatic rifles and high-capacity ammunition magazines.
A visibly angry Obama gave a speech shortly after the Senate’s decision. He said, “So all in all, this was a pretty shameful day for Washington. But this effort is not over. I want to make it clear to the American people we can still bring about meaningful changes that reduce gun violence, so long as the American people don’t give up on it. Even without Congress, my administration will keep doing everything it can to protect more of our communities… but we can do more if Congress gets its act together.”
Many people are making purchases ahead of any major changes. In fact, Obama is considered by many to be the best gun salesman in history.
As ..., background checks for February, while down from January, were 29.1 percent higher from the same month in 2011.
Other gun manufacturers are also seeing strong demand. Sturm, Ruger & Co. (NYSE:RGR) had to recently limit incoming orders from independent distributors to reduce the growth in its backlog, which hit 1.5 million orders at the end of 2012, or roughly nine months of production.
Link:
Monday, May 20, 2013
Islamic Revival: Bashar the Tyrant shells the People of Syria in Re...
Islamic Revival: Bashar the Tyrant shells the People of Syria in Re...: Bismillahi Al-Rahman Al-Raheem A Lion upon the Elderly, Women and Children; While an Ostrich in Wars! Bashar the Tyrant shells the People...
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Turkey's Erdogan says sees opportunity for Cyprus deal
May 16, 2013
Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday he saw a good opportunity for progress towards ending the division of Cyprus, a move that could further the exploitation of natural gas and oil in the eastern Mediterranean.
The island has been divided since a Greek Cypriot coup was followed by a Turkish invasion of the north in 1974. Turkey keeps some 30,000 troops in the north and is the only nation to recognize the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Efforts to reunite the island have repeatedly failed, but Turkish officials say the election in February of President Nicos Anastasiades, who backed a 2004 U.N. plan to resolve the division, presents the best hope in years of reaching a deal.
"We believe that there is a lot of opportunity to reach an agreement on the Cyprus issue, and this is an area which we continue to focus on," Erdogan said at a news conference with U.S. President Barack Obama during a trip to Washington.
Anastasiades backed the 2004 plan proposed by then-U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, even though a majority of his Greek Cypriot compatriots rejected it in a referendum shortly before the island joined the European Union.
The Turkish Cypriots in the north backed Annan's proposal.
"We're optimistic, we're working for a solution and we are asking the United States to apply diplomatic support to this as well," a Turkish official said ahead of talks between Erdogan and Obama.
Turkey itself began EU entry talks in 2005, a year after Cyprus was admitted, but its bid has been blocked by the intractable dispute over the island, as well as by longstanding opposition from core EU members Germany and France.
The Mediterranean island concluded a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout deal with the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund in April to stave off bankruptcy.
Development of its offshore Aphrodite gas field, which may contain 5 trillion to 8 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas, could reverse its financial fortunes. But Turkey has strongly warned it against exploiting the gas before a settlement is reached.
Turkey has meanwhile drilled exploratory onshore oil wells on the north of the island that have shown traces of hydrocarbons, further exacerbating the tensions.
(Reporting by Nick Tattersall; Editing by Jim Loney)
U.S. chides Russia over missiles as peace plans suffer
10 hrs ago
By Erika Solomon | Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
By Erika Solomon | Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
BEIRUT (Reuters) - The United States chided Russia for sending missiles to the Syrian government as plans for a peace conferencepromoted by Washington and Moscow were hit by diplomatic rifts over its scope and purpose.
Sectarian bloodshed in neighboring Iraq during Friday prayers, a hacking attack on a Western newspaper by sympathizers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and defiant comments by a rebel commander filmed eating a slain soldier's flesh were all reminders of how the two-year-old civil war is metastising.
But the divisions among world powers that have prevented a coordinated resolution were also again on display, just 10 days after Russia and the United States agreed to bury differences and push for an urgent international conference to end the war.
The most senior U.S. military officer, General Martin Dempsey, described Russia's recent delivery of anti-ship missiles to Assad as "ill-timed and very unfortunate" and risked prolonging a war which has already killed more than 80,000 Syrians and which the U.N. said had driven 1.5 million abroad.
While not responding directly to U.S. assertions that it had sent Yakhont missiles, a spokesman for President Vladimir Putin said Russia would honor contracts to supply Syria, which has been a customer for Moscow's weaponry since the Cold War.
"It's at the very least an unfortunate decision that will embolden the regime and prolong the suffering," Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters.
With a range of 300 km (200 miles), the Yakhont could prove a threat to warships in the Mediterranean, should, for example, Western powers abandon their deep reserve and intervene to offer air support to the rebels, as they did in Libya two years ago.
No date has yet been agreed for the international meeting, which appears to face growing obstacles. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon met Putin in Russia on Friday and said the conference should take place as soon as possible.
But highlighting the diplomatic conundrum it poses, France spelled out explicitly on Friday that it would oppose any meeting if Assad's regional ally Iran were invited - contrary to the Russian position that Tehran should be part of a solution.
ESCALATION
The rebels and key Arab and Western backers will meet in Amman on Wednesday to discuss how to approach a conference. But it is also far from clear that Assad's opponents can forge a united front or agree to meet the president's representatives.
After months of diplomatic stalemate, Washington and Moscow have been pushed to convene the conference by the rising death toll and atrocities, signs of escalation across Syria's frontiers and suspicions that chemical arms may have been used.
Three weeks ago, Israeli air strikes near Damascus that were said to target Iranian weapons heading for Lebanon drove home the risk of the Syrian conflict spreading further afield. As much was true of bombings last week across the border in Turkey.
On Friday, dozens of Iraqis were killed in bombings which fuelled fears that the increasingly sectarian war in Syria, where Sunni Islamists are a part of the rebellion and Assad's Alawite minority is backed by Shi'ite Iran, could plunge Iraq back into its own bloody civil conflict between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims.
Two bombs exploded outside a Sunni mosque in the city of Baquba as worshippers left Friday prayers, killing at least 43 people in one of the deadliest attacks of recent months.
Several other bombings claimed lives around the country - with 19 killed near a commercial complex in the west of Baghdad. Attacks on Sunni and Shi'ite mosques, security forces and tribal leaders have mounted since troops from the Shi'ite-led Iraqi government raided a Sunni protest camp near Kirkuk a month ago.
London's Financial Times became the latest Western media outlet to be targeted by online activists who support Assad.
Stories on the FT's website had their headlines replaced by "Hacked By Syrian Electronic Army" and messages on its Twitter feed read: "Do you want to know the reality of the Syrian 'Rebels?'" followed by a link to a video that purports to show members of the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front rebel group executing blindfolded and kneeling Syrian soldiers.
The video could not be independently verified.
Following another of many Internet videos that have caused concern over deepening communal hatreds, a rebel commander who was filmed apparently cutting out and biting into the heart or other organ of a dead solder made a statement on Friday.
"I am ready to be held accountable for my actions, on condition that Bashar and his shabbiha (militias) are tried for crimes they committed against our women and children," the man known as Abu Sakkar said in a new video posting.
"I send this message to the world: if the bloodshed in Syria does not stop, every Syrian will become Abu Sakkar."
Asked by the unseen interviewer why he mutilated the body, he said the soldier's phone contained video clips of him raping women, burning bodies and cutting off the limbs of captives.
JUNE MEETING?
A Western diplomat at the United Nations in New York said the target date for the peace conference was June 10-15, but it depended on the readiness of the Syrian parties. An alternative plan would be to hold an international conference and then have the Syrians meet at a later date when they are prepared.
The Russian arms transfer could intensify a push by some U.S. lawmakers for the United States to deepen its role in Syria, particularly after President Barack Obama's government acknowledged preliminary intelligence that Assad's forces likely used chemical weapons - something Obama has called a "red line".
"We can watch from the sidelines as the scales are tipped in Assad's favor, or protect U.S. national interests by supporting the armed opposition striving to build a new Syrian future," said Senate foreign relations committee chairman Robert Menendez.
But many U.S. officials fear Western weapons could fall into the wrong hands. Obama said Thursday he would consider both diplomatic and military options to pressure Assad, but insisted U.S. action alone would not be enough to resolve the conflict.
(Additional reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington; Writing by Alastair Macdonald; Editing by Jon Hemming)
Colorado sheriffs sue to block new gun-control laws
4 hrs ago
By Keith Coffman | Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
By Keith Coffman | Reuters
Source: Yahoo News
DENVER (Reuters) - A group of Colorado county sheriffs, angry about two new state gun control lawspassed in the wake of last year's mass shootings in Connecticut and Colorado, filed a federal lawsuit on Friday seeking to block the laws from going into effect.
The two laws, passed by the state's Democratic-controlled legislature with scant Republican support, ban ammunition magazines that hold more than 15 rounds and require background checks for all private gun sales and transfers.
All but 10 of the state's 64 county sheriffs signed on to the suit, filed in U.S. District Court in Denver. In their complaint, the sheriffs allege the new laws, which go into effect July 1, severely restrict citizens' constitutional right to own and bear arms.
The sheriffs, who in Colorado are elected, also complained that they were operating under tight budgets and did not have the money or manpower to enforce the new laws.
"They (the sheriffs) cannot expend these resources to conduct investigations that would be necessary to monitor compliance," the lawsuit said.
The bills were introduced in response to a shooting spree that killed 12 people at a suburban Denver movie theater last July and the slaying of 20 children and six adults at an elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, in December.
Connecticut and New York also have passed stricter gun laws in the wake of the shootings. The National Rifle Association, the powerful U.S. gun lobby, has announced plans to challenge the new gun control laws in all three states.
REASONABLE SAFETY MEASURES
Democratic state Senator Mary Hodge, who sponsored the magazine-limit bill, blasted the sheriffs and said the restrictions were reasonable public-safety measures.
"We can't just sit by and do nothing while first-graders and moviegoers are being mowed down in one fell swoop with weapons equipped with large-capacity magazines," Hodge said in a statement.
Joining the sheriffs in the lawsuit are a number of gun-rights organizations and a disabled gun owners group, who say that magazine limits would restrict their ability to defend themselves in violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act, which bars discrimination against the disabled.
"Disabilities make it difficult to quickly change magazines under the stress of a home invasion," the lawsuit said.
Governor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat who signed the bills into law, is named as the defendant in the lawsuit. His office had no immediate comment.
Colorado Attorney General John Suthers, a Republican, said in a statement that his role "will be to get court rulings on the legality of various aspects of the legislation as expeditiously as possible."
"Colorado citizens, and law-abiding gun owners in particular, deserve such clarification," said Suthers, who did not publicly oppose the two bills when they were debated in the legislature.
Separately, a Colorado pro-gun group, the Basic Freedom Defense Fund, said it was circulating a petition to recall the president of the state Senate, Democrat John Morse, because of his support forgun control measures.
Morse, a former police officer, said he would likely face a recall election later this year as a result.
"If they are successful in removing the Senate president in Colorado, it will have a chilling effect on anyone who takes them on but if they fail they will be exposed for the paper tiger they should be," he said.
(Editing by Cynthia Johnston, Philip Barbara and Bill Trott)
Friday, May 17, 2013
Syria ex-minister leads rebuilding plan
2 hrs 22 mins ago
By | Associated Press
Source: Yahoo News
By | Associated Press
Source: Yahoo News
BEIRUT (AP) — A six-member U.N. team led by a former Syrian planning minister is drawing up a comprehensive postwar reconstruction plan even as the country's civil war rages on with no apparent end in sight.
A joint U.S.-Russian push to bring together Syria's political opposition and representatives of President Bashar Assad's regime to negotiate a peaceful transition has given their work new urgency.
In a rare interview, the U.S.-educated economist, Abdullah al-Dardari, told The Associated Press that more than two years of fighting have cost Syria at least $60 billion and caused the vital oil industry to crumble. A quarter of all homes have been destroyed or severely damaged, and much of the medical system is in ruins.
Now, he says, the Syrians have to be ready to rebuild when the fighting ends. He says his team has been overwhelmed with requests for a reconstruction plan to support the U.S.-Russian initiative on the off chance it succeeds.
"I see a glimmer of hope," said al-Dardari, who now works for a Beirut-based U.N. development agency. "There appears to be more readiness for a political compromise by different groups in the opposition and by officials in the government."
Earlier this month, the U.S. and Russia agreed on a joint push to get Syria's political opposition and representatives of the Assad regime to negotiate a political transition in Syria. An international conference, possibly to be held in early June, would help launch talks.
Despite much skepticism, the initiative, announced by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week in Moscow, is the first serious attempt in a year to end Syria's civil war, which has killed more than 70,000 people and displaced more than 5 million.
The two sides remain far apart on the terms for negotiations, with the opposition insisting Assad must step down first and the regime unwilling to commit to an open-ended cease-fire. Both say they want to hear more about the agenda and participants before agreeing to talks.
Al-Dardari's plan, known as the National Agenda for the Future of Syria, is being drafted on the assumption that the conflict, now in its third year, will end by 2015 and that Syria will remain territorially united with a central government based in Damascus, regardless of who ends up ruling the country.
"Is that possible? If one looks at the situation today, then the immediate reaction is, 'No, it's not possible,'" al-Dardari said.
"However, I think the human losses and the catastrophic destruction should create sufficient moral pressure on the parties of this conflict — internal and external, since this has become a proxy war — to think seriously of a political compromise."
Syria's vicious civil war, in which the government has relied heavily on its air power to crush the rebels, has destroyed towns and wiped out entire blocks of apartment buildings. Centuries-old markets and archaeological treasures — once a major tourist draw and source of revenue — have been gutted by flames and gunfire in places like Aleppo and Homs — an irreplaceable chapter of history wiped out in a few hours of battle.
Factories, oil pipelines, schools, hospitals, mosques and churches have been systematically destroyed.
The fighting has devastated the Syrian economy, halting the country's oil exports and destroying much of its manufacturing industry and infrastructure.
Deep divisions among Syria's opposition and rebel groups are likely to complicate any international effort to help in reconstruction. Syrians also are convinced they will get little outside help to rebuild.
Al-Dardari appears well placed to be a leading figure in postwar reconstruction plans.
A Sunni Muslim who served as Syria's minister of planning for two years until Assad named him deputy prime minister for economic affairs in 2005, al-Dardari has been credited with masterminding the opening up of Syria's socialist-style economy into a free market enterprise, courting foreign investors and advocating political reforms to accompany the country's economic transformation.
He quietly left his government post in the summer of 2011, a few months after the uprising erupted against Assad's regime, which is dominated by Syria's minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. He joined the U.N soon after and remains a neutral figure who meets with opposition representatives and government officials.
Since August, he has been working as chief economist at the Beirut-based U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), heading a team of six economists and 30 experts inside and outside Syria.
Al-Dardari knows he faces a monumental task in any reconstruction effort.
He estimates the overall damage to Syria's economy three years into the conflict at $60-$80 billion. The economy has shrunk by about 35 percent, compared to the 6 percent annual growth Syria marked in the five years before the conflict began in March 2011. The economy has lost almost 40 percent of its GDP, and foreign reserves have been extensively depleted. Unemployment has shot up from 500,000 before the crisis to at least 2.5 million this year.
The fighting has destroyed or damaged 1.2 million homes nationwide, a quarter of all Syrian houses, al-Dardari said. In addition, around 3,000 schools and 2,000 factories have been destroyed, and almost half of the medical system — including hospitals and health centers — is in ruins.
To rebuild the 1.2 million homes, Syria needs $22 billion, plus an additional $6 billion to provide electricity, water, gas and other infrastructure, he estimates.
"The projections are sobering, if not scary," al-Dardari said, adding that fighting needs to end to strengthen the chance of Syria remaining a unified country, not a collection of self-ruled, sect-based entities.
"The fighting needs to stop soon, very soon, and it needs to end with a political solution that will preserve national sovereignty and territorial integrity, or there will be no economic reconstruction, and we'll lose Syria as a country altogether," he warned.
His team has put the reconstruction of the country's energy sector as a top priority. "It will provide a major source of cash for a country that will be stripped of cash," al-Dardari said.
Before the uprising, the oil sector was a pillar of Syria's economy, with the country producing about 380,000 barrels a day and exports — mostly to Europe — bringing in more than $3 billion in 2010. But the vital industry has buckled as rebels captured many of the country's oil fields, setting wells aflame and looters scooping up crude. Exports have ground practically to a standstill as production has dwindled.
The priority for any postwar government, al-Dardari said, will be repairing the pipelines and wells that were destroyed, rebuilding Syrian refining capacity to its prewar level of 200,000 barrels a day and bringing daily oil exports to 160,000 or 170,000 barrels a day.
His group is also in touch with Syrian industrialists and businessmen who would form the crux of any reconstruction effort.
The prospect of implementing any rebuilding plan hinges on the ability of the country's warring parties to come together, al-Dardari said — a tall order in the face of the sectarian hatred and brutal revenge killings that have marked the uprising,
But without territorial unity, a central authority and a strong, functioning civil administration across the country's 14 provinces, Syrian investors, who al-Dardari says will provide the bulk of funds for rebuilding, will not return and infuse the needed cash.
"If I were a Syrian businessman or woman who left Syria and took my business with me, and were to fly back into Damascus airport, I would want to see that Syrian customs — not some sort of other entity — and Syrian police are there," al-Dardari said.
Al-Dardari's project does not address the political makeup of a postwar government in Damascus.
"We are planning for the rebuilding of Syria after the dust settles," he said. "We don't interfere in the question of who should run Syria."
___
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)